Wales Pandemic Influenza Preparedness
The Minister for Health and Social Services has agreed to procure for Wales countermeasures for pandemic influenza i.e. stocks of pre-pandemic vaccine, antivirals, antibiotics, respirators, surgical facemasks and consumables to support their administration. The Minister has also agreed to participation in the establishment of The National FluLine Service. This agreement is subject to HM Treasury approval of the DH led UK business case for the service.
Date of decision / Dyddiad y penderfyniad:
9th July 2008
Statement of information / Datganiad gwybodaeth:
1. Influenza pandemics are natural phenomena that have occurred three times in the last century. Most experts believe that it is not a question of whether there will be another severe influenza pandemic but when. It is recognised that the likelihood of a high pathogenic human influenza virus, capable of causing a pandemic evolving in the near future is real but unquantifiable.
2. The Welsh Assembly Government is, therefore, planning with the rest of the UK for the next pandemic. It is impossible to predict when it will happen or which strain of virus it will be. It is difficult, however, to ignore the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in birds because the virus has become transmissible to humans. If the virus changed further to become transmissible between humans there is potential for a pandemic. It is equally possible that a pandemic could arise from another flu virus.
3. In the worst case a pandemic could have a massive impact with many millions of people worldwide becoming ill and a proportion of these dying. In the UK up to half of the population may become ill with up to 750,000 additional UK deaths. A pandemic will impact on all aspects of society. In the worst case scenario, with no interventions taken, the possible cumulative costs of a pandemic to UK society has been estimated at £1,242 billion.
4. We are currently in Phase 3 of the World Health Organisation (WHO) six alert levels (Phase 6 being the start of a pandemic), where there are human infections with a new type of virus, but there is not efficient and sustained transmission from person to person. We do not know how infectious the next pandemic will be or the severity of illness it will cause. We do know that wherever it emerges in the world it is likely to take only a few weeks to reach the UK and will spread quickly.
5. In view of the immediacy of the threat, “WHO recommend that all countries undertake urgent action to prepare for a pandemic”. The decision to procure stockpiles and establish a Flu Line Service to provide public advice and support delivery of countermeasures needs to be taken in this pandemic alert period before a pandemic emerges. This is necessary because it will take time to procure stocks and also to ensure NHS planning is in place to use the stockpile.
6. Once a pandemic starts it will be too late to secure stocks of countermeasures and establish a Flu Line Service to help manage our response. Moving forward now with the Department of Health to substantially improve our preparedness is timely and proportionate to the risk.
9th July 2008
Statement of information / Datganiad gwybodaeth:
1. Influenza pandemics are natural phenomena that have occurred three times in the last century. Most experts believe that it is not a question of whether there will be another severe influenza pandemic but when. It is recognised that the likelihood of a high pathogenic human influenza virus, capable of causing a pandemic evolving in the near future is real but unquantifiable.
2. The Welsh Assembly Government is, therefore, planning with the rest of the UK for the next pandemic. It is impossible to predict when it will happen or which strain of virus it will be. It is difficult, however, to ignore the spread of H5N1 avian influenza in birds because the virus has become transmissible to humans. If the virus changed further to become transmissible between humans there is potential for a pandemic. It is equally possible that a pandemic could arise from another flu virus.
3. In the worst case a pandemic could have a massive impact with many millions of people worldwide becoming ill and a proportion of these dying. In the UK up to half of the population may become ill with up to 750,000 additional UK deaths. A pandemic will impact on all aspects of society. In the worst case scenario, with no interventions taken, the possible cumulative costs of a pandemic to UK society has been estimated at £1,242 billion.
4. We are currently in Phase 3 of the World Health Organisation (WHO) six alert levels (Phase 6 being the start of a pandemic), where there are human infections with a new type of virus, but there is not efficient and sustained transmission from person to person. We do not know how infectious the next pandemic will be or the severity of illness it will cause. We do know that wherever it emerges in the world it is likely to take only a few weeks to reach the UK and will spread quickly.
5. In view of the immediacy of the threat, “WHO recommend that all countries undertake urgent action to prepare for a pandemic”. The decision to procure stockpiles and establish a Flu Line Service to provide public advice and support delivery of countermeasures needs to be taken in this pandemic alert period before a pandemic emerges. This is necessary because it will take time to procure stocks and also to ensure NHS planning is in place to use the stockpile.
6. Once a pandemic starts it will be too late to secure stocks of countermeasures and establish a Flu Line Service to help manage our response. Moving forward now with the Department of Health to substantially improve our preparedness is timely and proportionate to the risk.