Response to the adverse weather conditions on Friday 25 November 2005

Members will be aware of the difficulties created by the heavy snowfalls that were experienced throughout Wales on Friday, 25th November. The Met Office issued warnings well in advance of the likelihood of severe weather through its National Severe Weather Warning Service and through public information. The forecast was continuously updated throughout the course of the week. By Friday morning there were accumulations of snow throughout Wales causing problems on the roads and the closure of large numbers of schools throughout Wales.

However accurate the forecast the response to severe weather will depend upon the timing and severity of the weather. South Wales experienced slightly more snow on that Friday morning than emergency planners had anticipated. Although pre-salting was undertaken by authorities the level of snow and the freezing conditions required the repeated salting of the roads. Efforts were therefore concentrated on the main roads in the areas worse hit. I am assured that everyone involved did all they could to minimise the impact. The closure of schools was a matter for individual head teachers who in most cases will have consulted their local authority.

Members will also be aware of the problems on the A40 in West Wales on Monday, 28th November. These were caused by freezing rain occurring at the start of the morning peak, weather which no amount of pre-treatment can mitigate for.

The Welsh Assembly Government operates a full winter maintenance programme from October 1 to April 30. During that time, trunk road agents are required to have their fleet of winter maintenance vehicles serviced and fully equipped in readiness for use on the trunk road network in the event of extreme weather.

Agents for the Assembly receive daily forecasts and advanced warnings of severe weather including information from sensors installed throughout the Welsh road network which are all used to decide when salting runs should be carried out. Close liaison is maintained between local authorities, agents, emergency services, Traffic Wales and the Welsh Assembly Government to ensure that information is readily available and a co-ordinated approach is taken to effectively deal with any situation that may arise.

The Met Office long-term forecast for this winter is that it will be colder than average. The most recent example of such a winter is as far back as 1995/6.  Winters since then have been milder than average, perhaps lulling everyone into a false sense of security.  There is no evidence to support media speculation that it will be as extreme as that experienced in 1962/3 – a ‘one in fifty’ winter. Clearly, at this stage the forecast can only be based on probability analysis but the Met Office is not forecasting extreme winter conditions similar to those experienced during the winter of 1962/63.

The predicted winter conditions would mean prolonged spells of cold weather, with the lowest temperatures at night.  The cold spells would be likely to last longer than normal with the possibility of temperatures remaining below freezing for several consecutive days.  Despite being classed a dry winter, significant snowfall might still occur, most likely in isolated falls rather than repeated snowfalls. Emergency planners are aware of the predicted conditions this winter and factor in this forecast into their planning arrangements. These arrangements will be based on the likely severity of each severe weather event.